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Melbourne Institute Monthly Bulletin of Economic Trends MayFriday 22 August 2008 Slower growth forecasted but no recession in sight The latest issue of the Melbourne Institute Monthly Bulletin of Economic Trends continues to show slower growth in Australia over the next four quarters. GDP is estimated to be 3.0 per cent in the June quarter 2008 and growth is forecasted to slow to 2.2 per cent in the March quarter 2009. According to Dr. Michael Chua, Research Fellow at the Melbourne Institute, "We expect a slowdown in labour activities, and in 2008, it would have the least impact on employment growth in the mining and construction sectors and the most impact on employment growth in the services sector - the 2-speed economy is likely to continue for some time." No rebound in the world economy is in sight either. The news is much the same as in previous months. Global economic activity is weak and inflation pressures remain high. The weakest growth has been in the US and the UK but parts of the Euro Area, namely France, Italy, and Spain, are now on a recessionary path. High energy and materials prices are taking their toll on Japan. The prospects for China and India, the engines of current global growth, are starting to sour. The outlook for China remains positive but consumers and businesses expectations are starting to wither. A growing inflation problem is adding to these troubles. The latest Melbourne Institute Monthly Bulletin of Economic Trends report can be found at http://www.melbourneinstitute.com/research/macro/bulletin.htmlContact Media Contact
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